For years, Tesouro IPCA+ 2029 (Brazilian Treasury Inflation-Linked Bonds) was considered one of the best ways to protect your money against inflation while ensuring attractive real returns. However, the financial scenario in 2025 has changed significantly, and many experts now argue that investing in IPCA+ 2029 may not be the smartest move anymore.
In this article, we’ll break down the reasons why this investment is losing its shine, what risks investors should be aware of, and which alternatives might make more sense today if your goal is to make money online, invest safely, and build wealth.
1. Falling Interest Rates and Lower Real Returns
One of the biggest reasons why IPCA+ 2029 is no longer attractive is the fall of the Selic Rate. As the Central Bank continues its cycle of interest rate cuts, the premium offered by the Treasury bond linked to inflation has dropped sharply.
In other words, what used to be an investment with real returns of more than 6% above inflation is now offering less than 4% in many cases. With the risk and duration until 2029, this return may not compensate.
2. High Volatility and Mark-to-Market Risks
If you need to redeem your investment before 2029, you may face heavy losses. That’s because IPCA+ bonds are extremely sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.
- If rates rise again, the price of your bond falls.
- If inflation expectations change, volatility increases.
This makes IPCA+ 2029 much riskier for investors who want liquidity or may need money in the short or medium term.
3. Uncertainty About Inflation in Brazil
While the IPCA index ensures inflation protection, the government’s fiscal policies and global economic instability generate uncertainty. If inflation ends up being lower than projected, the real gain of IPCA+ 2029 will be smaller than expected.
At the same time, if inflation rises too much, the Central Bank may increase interest rates again, causing bond prices to fall sharply in the secondary market. It’s a scenario where the investor can lose both ways.
4. Better Alternatives in 2025
Instead of locking your money in a long-term fixed-income asset until 2029, there are more interesting options available right now:
- Tesouro Selic → safer, daily liquidity, and no mark-to-market losses.
- High-Yield CDBs with daily liquidity paying up to 120%–130% of CDI.
- LCIs and LCAs → tax-free investments with returns above 100% of CDI.
- Fixed-Income Funds with active management that can adjust faster to changes in interest rates.
These alternatives allow you to maintain flexibility, higher liquidity, and competitive returns, while avoiding the risks of holding IPCA+ 2029 until maturity.
5. Final Thoughts: Time to Rethink Strategy
Investing in Tesouro IPCA+ 2029 was a brilliant decision a few years ago. But in 2025, the scenario has shifted, and its risk-return ratio no longer compensates.
If your goal is to make money online, generate passive income, and invest safely, it’s time to consider new opportunities in fixed income and even diversify into stocks and digital assets to balance your portfolio.
The key lesson: don’t get attached to old investment strategies. The market changes — and your strategy must change with it.
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